Europe Update - 3/10/26
Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 as of 8.00 am ET continued its rebound after its decline at one point Monday reached -8% this month, currently +1.4%, and +3.4% off those Monday lows. Still it’s on track for its first monthly loss in 10 months.
Major European indices also are on track for a solidly higher finish Tuesday.
Germany's DAX: +2.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4%, France's CAC 40: +1.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +2.3%.
In news:
BBG - The US told its Group of Seven partners that Russia sanctions relief would be temporary as it reacts to spiking energy prices amid the war in Iran, the European Union’s economy chief said.
The assurances came Monday during a call of G-7 finance ministers, held shortly after the Trump administration granted India a waiver to buy Russian oil held at sea.
The US was “emphasizing” that the India decision was “very much contained both in terms of time and scope of the measures,” said EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, who joined the call. “They do not expect substantial impact of this on Russian oil revenues,” he added, speaking during a Monday night press conference.
RTRS - Ukraine is ready for new U.S.-backed peace talks with Russia “at any moment”, but its partners’ attention is currently focused on the Iran conflict, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday, saying that the U.S. had asked to postpone an upcoming meeting.
Zelenskiy also said that Ukraine had received 11 requests from countries neighbouring Iran, as well as from the U.S. and Europe, for help downing drones fired by Tehran. Russia, he said, was manipulating the Iran conflict to improve its position.
CNBC: Energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations — namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — are again set to meet virtually Tuesday morning to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves.
It comes after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation on Monday. In a statement, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol — who attended the meeting — said the conflict in the Middle East was “creating significant and growing risks for the market,” but said various options, including freeing up IEA emergency oil stocks, had been discussed.
RTRS - The European Central Bank should take its time to reassess policy and stay on its present course for now, three policymakers said on Tuesday.
Governing Council member Madis Muller said the chances of an interest-rate hike have risen of late, but that officials shouldn’t react hastily to the war in Iran and its implications. “The probability of the next change in the policy rates now being more towards an increase rather than the opposite,” the Estonian official told an event Tuesday in Vilnius. “That probably has gone up in the last couple of weeks.” At the same time, the ECB shouldn’t “rush into any decisions,” he said. “We should first see if this increase in energy prices that we now are experiencing, if that turns out to be transitory or not.”
"It is also crucial not to act hastily but rather to think carefully and consider the scenario thoroughly, while at the same time waiting to see how the situation develops," Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher told reporters in Vienna. "Those who act hastily usually act poorly."
Gediminas Simkus, Lithuania's central bank chief, said the ECB should not reassess policy with every market move, given exceptional volatility, and should stay calm, taking stock at its next meeting on March 19. “If you start thinking about monetary policy in the morning, you may end up with very different thinking in the evening,” Simkus said, in response to crude oil prices surging to close to $120 per barrel on Monday before easing back to $90 on Tuesday.
RTRS - The EU must be prepared to project its power more assertively as it can no longer rely on a “rules-based” system against threats and must determine if its institutions and systems help or hinder its credibility, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday.
“We will always defend and uphold the rules-based system that we helped to build with our allies, but we can no longer rely on it as the only way to defend our interests or assume its rules will shelter us from the complex threats that we face,” von der Leyen said at a conference for EU ambassadors.
BBG - UK consumer sentiment has dropped sharply since war broke out in the Middle East, according to a new survey, as the global consequences of the conflict start to take their toll on economies such as Britain’s.
An index tracking confidence in the UK fell to a four-month low in March, reversing gains made at the start of the year, Barclays said Tuesday. Researchers interviewed around 2,000 consumers between March 3-6, days after the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran, roiling markets and sending oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
Around eight in 10 Britons are worried that war in the Middle East could push up inflation, and specifically fuel and energy bills. Rising food prices and the impact on their personal finances are also major concerns. Nearly half are already taking action to adjust, for example by cutting energy use, spending less on discretionary items or saving more.
Subscriber portion includes more news, corporate updates, etc., plus Citadel on why its unlikely the ECB hikes while the Fed cuts, economists on how the oil price shock will impact UK inflation, Goldman on EU Q1 GDP tracking.
The rest of the rundown of major European political, economic, and corporate news and analysis from Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, Briefing.com, WSJ, BoA, Goldman, etc., follows for paid subscribers.
