Import Prices - June 2026
Import prices rise well more than expected, the highest y/y since Aug '22, despite fuel prices falling m/m, as the AI trade pushes ex-fuel y/y to the highest since June '22.
US Import Price Index (M/M) June: 0.3% (est -0.7%; prev 1.9%; prevR 1.7%)
— Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.1%; prev 0.8%; prevR 0.7%) — Import Price Index (Y/Y): 7.1% (est 6.0%; prev 6.7%; prevR 6.6%)
— Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum (Y/Y): 4.4% (prev 3.8%; prevR 3.5%)
Executive Summary:
Headline import prices rose +0.33% m/m in June, well above expectations for -0.7%, though moderating sharply from a downwardly revised +1.69% in May (originally +1.90%). On a y/y basis import prices accelerated to +7.10%, the largest annual increase since August 2022 (+7.7%).
Fuel (which includes crude oil and petroleum products in addition to gasoline, diesel, etc.) reversed course with fuel import prices -0.4% m/m — the first monthly decline since January — as petroleum prices retreated -0.7% m/m. Fuel remains though +44.1% y/y.
Ex-fuel import prices moderated to +0.37% m/m (down from +0.67% in May and +0.60% in April), while y/y accelerated to +4.24%, the largest 12-month increase since June 2022 (+4.6%), driven in part by the AI trade including semiconductors at a record +30.67% y/y, but also broader capital goods strength with nonelectrical machinery +7.18% y/y (24% of imports).
China exporting deflation to the US continues to reverse with the y/y change in import prices from China now up to +1.33%, the highest since November 2022, after starting the year at -3.1%. Import prices from Canada rose +1.2% m/m and are +20.7% y/y, the most since July 2022, primarily on higher oil prices.
