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Neil’s Newsletter

Import Prices - May 2026

Import prices rise well more than expected to the highest y/y since Aug '22 on broad based advance with ex-fuel y/y the highest since Mar '22.

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Neil Sethi
Jun 16, 2026
∙ Paid

US Import Price Index (M/M) May: 1.9% (est 1.0%; prev 1.9%; prevR 2.0%)
— Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum (M/M): 0.8% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7%; prevR 0.5%) — Import Price Index (Y/Y): 6.7% (est 5.7%; prev 4.2%)
— Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum (Y/Y): 3.8% (prev 2.9%)

Executive Summary:

  • Headline import prices rose +1.90% in May from April (m/m), well above expectations for +1.0%, and pushing prices to +6.73% from a year earlier (y/y), the largest annual increase since August 2022.

  • Fuel (which includes crude oil and petroleum products in addition to gasoline, diesel, etc.) was again a dominant driver with fuel import prices +12.5% m/m, now up +45.1% y/y, the largest over-the-year advance since August 2022 (+46.4%).

  • Ex-fuel import prices were also elevated though at +0.82% m/m — after February, the largest increase since March 2022 — and +3.69% y/y, the largest increase since August 2022, driven in part by the AI trade with semiconductor and electrical equipment prices +6.91% m/m and +29.00% y/y, the latter a record high (to 2004), but many non-AI categories also seeing strong advances.

  • Import prices from China were +0.92% m/m, the largest monthly advance since January 2008, and are now +1.12% y/y, the largest over-the-year advance since November 2022. Import prices from Canada were +4.9% m/m, easing back from +6.2% in April (the highest since March 2022) and are +18.3% y/y, the largest over-the-year advance since August 2022 (+19.0%).

Now let’s take a deeper look with more details and charts and quick analysis from Goldman.

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