Initial Jobless Claims week ending Dec 25th seasonally adjusted: -8K to 198K vs. 205K consensus and 206K prior (revised from 205K). Non-SA +1K to 256K.

More progress on continuing claims, total rec'ing benefits stuck in the mud

• Initial Jobless Claims week ending Dec 25th seasonally adjusted: -8K to 198K vs. 205K consensus and 206K prior (revised from 205K). Non-SA +1K to 256K.

• 4-week moving average was 199.25K, a decrease of 7.25K from the previous week's revised average of 206,500.

• Continuing jobless claims seasonally-adjusted (one week delayed) -140K to1.716M vs. 1.856M prior and 1.868M consensus. Non-SA -191K to 1.637M.

• Total receiving benefits in all programs (two weeks delayed) was 2.177M, +39K.

News Release (dol.gov)

Seasonally adjusted initial claims week through Dec 25th drifted back to just under 200k, the level they’ve been at for the most part the last few weeks.  Non-adjusted claims increased slightly to 256K.    

So claims remain at very low levels, which makes sense in a job market with the largest ever spread between job openings and hires (per the most recent JOLTS report).  The 4-week moving average of adjusted initial claims decreased to a new multi-decade low (since 1969).  

Adjusted continuing claims, which are one-week delayed, fell by a healthy -140K and non-adjusted by -191K.  These are now back to pre-pandemic levels (around 1.75M).

Total receiving benefits, which is two weeks delayed, which jumped around a lot the last few weeks, was more stable this week ticking up by +39K to 2.177M. This remains towards the low end of the 2.1M-2.4M range we’ve been in for months outside of a dip below that last month (that was quickly reversed).  We still have around 245K in pandemic programs where benefits expired three months ago.  It would seem total benefits should continue to move down at least until those pandemic claims are basically gone.    

Overall, as we’re already at or below pre-pandemic levels on most of these categories (total receiving benefits is the biggest outlier), I'd expect to see these numbers bounce around near current levels (maybe pushing a little lower given the strength of the labor market) with hopefully total receiving benefits joining the others. 

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