Markets Update - 3/10/26

Update on US equity and Treasury markets, US economic data, the Fed, select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts!

Mar 10, 2026

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US equity indices opened trading Tuesday with modest declines, particularly compared to previous sessions pre-market, but still under some pressure after Pres Trump tempered his Monday afternoon statement that the “the war is very complete, pretty much,” saying Monday evening “[w]e could call it a tremendous success right now,” Trump said. “Or we could go further—and we’re going to go further.” And when asked if he thinks the war would be over this week, he said: “No. But soon. Very soon.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meanwhile said Tuesday “will be our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.” Meanwhile, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote in a post on X that the country is not looking for a ceasefire, and media reports were that missile attacks from Iran had intensified. Bloomberg also reported that an oil tanker had exploded and another refinery closed in the region to go with increasing production shut-ins from Gulf countries. That all had crude oil back above $90 (although well off levels from Sunday night).

But crude would fall back, and as it did equities would climb into the mid-afternoon before they in turn would give that all back after the White House said no tanker has been escorted by the navy through the Strait of Hormuz, refuting an earlier, since-deleted social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright that had boosted equities earlier, and CBS News reported that the U.S. has started to see indications that Iran is moving toward deploying mines in the Strait. Indices would end basically where they started, little changed on the day, although supported by megacaps with the majority of stocks finishing in the red (equal-weight SPX was -0.8%).

Elsewhere, bond yields would climb to their highest closes of the month, while the dollar would also rebound. Gold, copper, and bitcoin all were higher while crude and natgas would finish lower (all covered in the subscriber section with charts).

The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPX) was -0.2%, the equal weighted S&P 500 index (SPXEW) -0.8%, Nasdaq Composite UNCH (and the top 100 Nasdaq stocks (NDX) UNCH), the SOXX semiconductor index +0.7%, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) -0.2%.

Morningstar style box oddly shows larger growth in the red in contrast to what we’ll see later in the subscriber section.

Market commentary:

“Trump’s words have sparked significant unwinding in oil and energy prices, helping to ease those fears of inflationary pressures,” said Fiona Cincotta at City Index. “However, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, and any gains will remain limited until there are clear signs of an end to hostilities in the Gulf and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improves.”
“While traders welcomed the sudden drop in oil prices, the geopolitical backdrop remains far from stable, leaving markets vulnerable to further volatility,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Against this backdrop, our near-term crude oil forecast remains cautious. We could yet see more volatility as Iran vows to fight.”
“The conflict in the Middle East and related headlines are still the major source of fluctuations in markets, with equities, oil, and rates all spending another day trying to find equilibrium,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “We would continue to try and look through those near-term headlines.”
Mike Sanders of Madison Investments anticipates that if oil prices drop back to the low $70s and $60s range, it won’t be a big deal for the economy.
“If we stay elevated — which there should probably be a little bit more of a premium in the market, given all the uncertainty that we have — I do think it’s going to matter,” the portfolio manager and head of fixed income said. “It’s going to take a while to work its way through.”
While the CPI report has lost some of its importance given recent moves in energy prices, any additional signs of inflationary pressures could sound the “death-knell” for rate cut expectations this year, according to David Morrison at Trade Nation.

Link to X posts - Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) / X for full posts/access to charts.

In individual stock action:

Corporate news from BBG:

Boeing Co. said a wiring flaw found on its 737 Max will delay some deliveries of its cashcow narrowbody jet.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is introducing AI agents across the Pentagon’s three million-strong workforce to automate routine jobs, according to a senior defense official.
Nvidia Corp. is making a new investment in Thinking Machines Lab, a company founded by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati.
Amazon.com Inc. is borrowing $37 billion in dollar bonds in an offering that could swell to nearly $50 billion with a planned euro debt sale.
Salesforce Inc. is planning to sell as much as $25 billion of debt to fund a share buyback, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Honeywell Aerospace Inc. launched a $16 billion inaugural US investment-grade bond sale as it prepares for a planned spinoff.