US Leading Index (M/M) Dec: 0.8% (est 0.8%; prev R 0.7%)
The Conference Board LEI for the United States (conference-board.org)
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index continued its run of strong readings, increasing another 0.8% as expected to a new record high following a 07% increase in November (revised from 1.1% ). At least according to this indicator, the economy remains in good shape. The commentary was positive.
From the report:
“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.”
As a reminder, here are the components of the LEI (it does have a bit of a manufacturing tilt):
As we can see, LEI's generally peak 6-18 months before a recession.
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