US S&P Flash PMI - April 2026
April flash PMI rebounds from 2.5-yr low w/manufacturing near 4-year high, but services and employment more subdued, while output prices and delivery times rise the most since 2022
US S&P Global Composite PMI Apr P: 52.0 (est 50.6; prev 50.3)
- Services PMI: 51.3 (est 50.6; prev 49.8)
- Manufacturing: 54.0 (est 52.5; prev 52.3)
The April US flash Composite PMI Output Index rebounded to a 3-month high of 52.0, +1.7pts from the two-and-a-half year low of 50.3 in March, signaling faster (although “muted”) economic growth at the start of Q2 despite the ongoing conflict in Iran. It is the 39th month of expansion. The report noted the reading “signals [a] muted rebound in output from initial war impact as output prices rise at sharpest rate since mid-2022.”
As we saw in other regions this morning (see International Update), manufacturing rose to multi-year highs up +1.7pts to 54.0 — the highest since May 2022 — with output surging +2.5pts to 55.7 — a 48-month high. While services saw nearly as large a rise +1.5pts to 51.3, a 2-month high, the lower reading meant the sector “remained especially subdued...the second weakest in the past year due to a further cooling of demand growth.”
And also like in other regions, the report indicated some of the rise in manufacturing may be due to “stock building amid concerns over supply availability and price hikes due to the ongoing war…. Purchasing activity rose at the second fastest rate seen for nearly four years, surpassed only by the jump in buying activity seen shortly after last spring’s tariff announcements.”
Looking at the components:
Output rebounded but remained well below last year’s pace held back by services with manufacturing growth the standout — “Business activity growth rebounded in April having broadly stalled in March...albeit running well below levels typically seen last year...the manufacturing sector saw output rise at the sharpest rate for four years, fueled by the largest influx of new orders since May 2022.”
New Orders as noted surged in manufacturing but barely grew in services which were at a 2-year low — “However, both output and new orders growth were boosted by client stock building...The rise in orders was driven by domestic demand, as export sales of goods fell at an increased rate...New business placed at service providers rose only marginally and at the slowest rate seen over the past two years, led by an ongoing decline in exports. Lost sales were commonly linked by survey contributors to the uncertainty and disruption caused by the war in the Middle East alongside other government policies and affordability issues..”
The increased output though didn’t translate to increased Employment which remained near-flat for a second straight month — the worst back-to-back readings since late 2024 — “Employment rose only marginally in April after falling slightly in March. The overall flat picture represents the worst back-to-back months for employment since late 2024. Manufacturing headcounts fell for the first time in nine months and only a marginal return to jobs growth was reported in the service sector. While some of the weak employment picture reflected resignations and persistent labor supply shortages, companies also reported concerns over the need to reduce staffing costs in the face of the uncertain demand environment and high input prices.”
Supply Chains continued to deteriorate, with supplier delivery times the worst since August 2022 — now eight months of consecutive lengthening — “War-related issues led to increasingly widespread supply problems, adding to existing challenges related to tariffs. Factories reported the greatest lengthening of supplier delivery times since August 2022, extending a trend that now stretches to eight months.”
Input Prices hit an 11-month high and the second-highest in over three years, while Output Prices rose at the fastest rate since July 2022 — “Average prices charged for goods and services rose in April at the fastest rate since July 2022 amid increases in input prices and supply scarcities. While manufacturers reported an especially steep jump in goods prices, with the rate of inflation at a ten-month high, service sector selling price inflation also accelerated to reach a 45-month high. Input price inflation meanwhile hit an 11-month high in April and was the second-highest in over three years. Manufacturing input costs increased especially sharply, with inflation a ten-month high and the second-fastest increase since July 2022. The rise in services costs was the largest since December and among the sharpest in the past three years.”
Sentiment improved slightly but remained historically low, with manufacturing the most optimistic since February 2025 while services “remained especially low” — “Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead improved in April but remained historically low...Sentiment remained especially low in the service sector, albeit ticking up since March. Manufacturers were their most optimistic since February 2025, and thereby confidence was amongst the highest seen since the pandemic. This was largely reflective of the recent upturn in orders, additional investment in marketing and hopes of tariff-led reshoring.”
Comments from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who notes the April PMI is “broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%” with stagflation risks mounting:
“A rebound in business output growth in April is good news after the near-stagnation seen in March, but over the past three months we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024 with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame.
“The April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with the vast service sector acting as the principal drag. Orders for services ranging from travel and tourism to financial products barely rose as the war caused hesitancy for spending among both household and business customers, with surging prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs acting as a further deterrent.
“There was better news from manufacturing, but here an expansion of output and orders could be partly traced to the building of safety stocks, with survey respondents reporting ‘panic’ and ‘emergency’ buying ahead of price hikes and supply shortages in echoes of the problems seen during the pandemic. Not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services. The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years.
“Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma. However, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.”
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8bdf1bb2dddf420e9c0e9d7e22f75c09
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